Ross Dunkley, the editor in chief of Rangoon?s Myanmar Times, said Burma?s new Prime Minister Gen Khin Nyunt should be given a "honeymoon period" of 100 days to prove himself. Dunkley?s remark, made before an audience at the Foreign Correspondents? Club of Thailand last week, was in response to criticisms that Burma?s generals lacked credibility when it comes to political reform.

Honeymoon periods are often extended to newly elected leaders to give them time to settle in to their new job. But unfortunately, Gen Khin Nyunt is not an elected leader. Moreover, he is not new to the job. While the job description was rewritten for him last month, his role has changed very little. The truth is Khin Nyunt has had 15 years to prove himself to the people of Burma as Secretary One of the ruling junta. His honeymoon was over long ago.

Don?t forget that Khin Nyunt, as head of intelligence, has been instrumental in suppressing political dissidents over the years. The truces he spearheaded with ethnic groups have been left in limbo. No one knows when the uncertainties surrounding ceasefire agreements will be resolved.

All the promises of dialogue and power sharing Khin Nyunt made to foreign leaders, including the likes of Thailand?s Gen Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, have turned out to be full of empty rhetoric.

The junta Khin Nyunt represents has done little to alleviate the suffering of its people over the past decade and a half. The abuses have certainly not stopped. In the four weeks since Khin Nyunt?s appointment as Prime Minister, several members of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) have been charged and sentenced, while others await trial. Let?s look at some examples.

Earlier this month, Aung Soe Myint, an NLD Member of Parliament (MP) from Taunggoo, Pegu Division, was sentenced to seven years in prison for allegedly owning an unregistered motorbike a common offence in Burma.
Two other NLD members, Thein Naing Oo and Tin Tin Nyo from Dala Township opposite Rangoon, were also given seven-year terms on Sept 5 for spreading "misinformation" about the Depayin ambush.

Regular abuses such as coercion and harassment of NLD members and their families have continued unabated. According to the exiled National Coalition Government of the Union of Burma, Dr Hla Soe Nyunt, an NLD MP from Mandalay, was forced by government authorities to resign from the NLD earlier this month. He was a member of the opposition entourage that was attacked on May 30.

Moreover, the Thai-based Network for Democracy and Development in Burma wrote in a report last week that Coastal Region Commander Brig-Gen Ohn Myint encouraged local authorities to criminalize NLD members. When Ohn Myint spoke at a meeting on Sept 12, he praised local authorities for their performance in effectively "weakening the local NLD."

Human rights abuses in ethnic areas have continued. On Sunday, a Light Infantry Division based in Maw Chi, Karenni State, torched the small village of Ywe Taw Kho. According to Rimond Htoo of the Karenni National Progressive Party, some 200 villagers have taken refuge in nearby forests. Further south, Karen sources on the Thai-Burma border say a firefight on Sept 11 forced 139 civilians to flee across to Thailand. The people sought refugee at Mae La Camp, not far from Mae Sot.

These incidents prove that despite the declaration of a transition plan, the ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) has not halted its military operations against armed ethnic groups that have held out on ceasefires.

If Khin Nyunt was really serious about proving himself, he should have intervened. But instead, the PM chose to do nothing to stop Burma?s continuing atrocities. He could also take a positive step and release the 140 political prisoners who are still incarcerated after the Depayin massacre.

Instead, he seems to have invested all his hope in the road map, even though several important details are missing. Khin Nyunt has failed to come up with a timetable for the National Convention, the first phase of the government?s seven-point plan. And he has not given any clear indication on whether opposition groups?be they ethnic or pro-democracy groups will be included.

The Myanmar Times last week quoted a statement issued by the Burmese Embassy in London. According to the statement, the 104 principles and 15 chapters from the previous National Convention will not be changed. These provisions made for problems in the last National Convention, and eventually resulted in an NLD walkout, and led to proceedings being suspended in 1996. Clearly Burma?s government is not worried about making the same mistakes again.

It is crystal clear that the SPDC will not change anything to accommodate the concerns of its political opponents. Notwithstanding the criticisms, the junta has begun to organize mass rallies through its political wing, the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA). Through forced rallies, the government hopes to garner support for its "roadmap to disciplined multiparty democracy."

A lasting solution will take longer to find. If Khin Nyunt and his fellow military leaders were to change the unworkable principles of the Convention, and push for inclusion rather than exclusion in the transition process, he would surely win credit for showing some flexibility and farsightedness. Khin Nyunt would be granted a "honeymoon period" and given enough time to carry out his reforms.

Better still, if Khin Nyunt were to invite Suu Kyi and ethnic representatives to share power and work together for a peaceful transition under the "Government of Unity", he would surely be given a much longer grace period.

But so far there has been nothing to indicate that the Burmese regime is on the mend. Nor is there any evidence that Khin Nyunt is a reformist as alleged. But given his record with the Burma?s junta over the past 15 years, how could anyone seriously expect a change now?

(Aung Naing Oo is a political analyst based in Thailand. He was also a panelist at last Thursday?s Burma Night at the Foreign Correspondents? Club of Thailand.)